DETECTION OF CHANGE IN DROUGHT FREQUENCY IN BYDGOSZCZ REGION, CENTRAL POLAND

Abstract

The aim of the work, carried out within the framework of research on currently occurring rather than predicted climate changes, was to confirm or deny the hypothesis of increasing incidence of droughts in central Poland (the Bydgoszcz region) over the years 1986-2015.

According to projections of climate change, the variability and extremity of weather conditions are expected to increase. In studies conducted under some climate scenarios, it was shown that atmospheric precipitation variability in central Poland will increase even to 20%, depending on the scenario. Some researches indicate that these changes are already taking place. The material was the data of precipitation measurements gained from weather station, located in a poorly urbanized area, at the Research Center of the University of Science and Technology. Totals of atmospheric precipitation in the 30-year period were analyzed (1986-2015). Dry periods in individual months, seasons, half-years and entire years were identified on the basis of the relative precipitation index (RPI). The precipitation totals in the years 1986-2015 were characterized by a very high temporal variability and thus increased the climatic risk of plants cultivation. The significant positive trend of precipitation totals was found only for the cold half-year, which is consistent with the projections of the IPCC report. The frequency of the occurrence dry months was 38.6%, of seasons 38.3%, half-years 35.0% and years 30.0%. There was noted no increasing frequency of dry periods with years; just to the contrary, a decreasing tendency was identified.

                                                                                                      Keywords: atmospheric precipitation, climate change, drought, relative precipitation index

Article DOI: http://doi.org/10.15544/RD.2017.030